The Economics Hub Newsletter: Week 13
Rupee hits all-time low, IMF-Sri Lanka loan agreement, British Pound at lowest levels since 1985, NRI investor's guide, Privacy news and Charts of the week.
Happy Sunday!
Welcome to another issue of The Economics Hub Newsletter! I hope you are well.
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Here’s what we cover this week. As per your interest and convenience, please click on the specific topic to jump directly to that section!
Ready? Let’s dive in!
British pound falls to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985
IMF announces preliminary bailout loan agreement with Sri Lanka
US asked British spy agency to stop Guardian publishing Snowden revelations
Ireland fines Instagram €405 million over the protection of children's data
TikTok denies security breach after hackers leak user data, source code.
EU broadens inquiry into the use of Pegasus spyware
Israeli Defence Minister's Cleaner Sentenced for Spying Attempt
Iranian authorities plan to use facial recognition to enforce new hijab law
China Targets Online ‘Rumors’ Ahead of Xi’s Leadership Bid
Doxxed, threatened, and arrested: Russia’s war on Wikipedia editors
Ad blockers struggle under Chrome's new rules
Internet Security & Encryption Pioneer Peter Eckersley Passes at 43
Longest Reigns since the 17th Century
The Ascent of CBDCs
India and China soften Russia’s oil sanctions pain
The Meteoric Rise of UPI
Food and Energy are Driving the Global Inflation Surge
Global Policy Rates and Inflation Update
Investors Ramp Up Short Positions in Futures
Recession Outlook for Major Countries
1. Rupee hits all-time low of 80 against US dollar
Very recently, the Indian rupee hit an all-time low of 80 against the US dollar as major currencies continue their downward spiral against the mighty dollar. The Rupee breaching the psychological mark of 80 on Wednesday for the second time ever has set off alarms if this slump signals a further deterioration of the Indian economy. The Indian currency has now lost more than 7% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2022.
This is happening despite the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervening in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars from its foreign exchange reserves and buying rupees. The RBI sells dollars and purchases rupees to ensure that there are adequate dollars in circulation and that the rupee does not lose value rapidly.
Although RBI’s intervention has been relatively effective in maintaining the Rupee at around 80 per dollar, this intervention strategy might not be fully sustainable in the long term as India’s forex reserves continue to dry up. As noted by Mint:
India's foreign exchange (forex) market erased its over $560 billion mark in the week ending September 2. In August month, the reserves witnessed a sharp decline as RBI leaned toward taming rupee depreciation against the US dollar. In the latest week, reserves dived lowest in more than 23 months. All components of forex reserves contracted during the week under review with foreign currency assets (FCA) weighing the most on the performance.
Let us look at the primary reasons why the Indian Rupee is falling:
As evident from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish monetary policy stance and would continue to hike key policy rates for the time being. The result is that foreign investors might continue to sell their assets to pull the capital away from India (and other EMEs) in an anticipation of higher risk-adjusted returns.
Weaker growth projections in the short-to-medium term, resulting in fewer capital investments in India via the FDI route.
We do not have the capacity to export goods and services to increase our Forex reserves to offset the freefall in the rupee against the dollar because the developed markets are expected to grow slowly or even get into a recession.
India’s import bill has risen considerably due to the rise in global commodity prices. This weighs a lot on the rupee considering that the nation imports around 86% of its oil needs.
In general, Asian currencies continue to weaken against the dollar, especially the Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan. For instance, global hedge funds are increasingly betting against the yen as they anticipate that the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy would continue. Even the Chinese Yuan continues to weaken against the dollar given its uncertain macroeconomic situation and continued covid-19 lockdowns, which have weighed on industry and the economy.
2. An NRI investor's guide to navigating Rupee at 80
This is an interesting article by The Economic Times, which briefly explains how non-resident Indians (NRIs) can visualize the downside in the Indian rupee from an investment perspective.
Historically, the downfall of the rupee has always been considered an attractive investment opportunity by NRI investors. Borrowing funds outside India at cheaper rates and then investing the same in India for higher returns can create a plethora of investment opportunities in India.
When the Rupee slides against the dollar, a typical person gets more rupees in exchange for dollars. This creates a valuable opportunity for NRIs who plans to invest in India or repatriate income to their family in India through remittances.
Before we proceed, let’s summarize the different investment options available to NRIs and the process involved in investing.
There are three main types of fixed deposit accounts that serve as NRI investment options in India:
Income from India - Non-Resident Ordinary (NRO) Bank Account:
This type of account is generally used by NRIs to manage their incomes earned domestically.
Rent income, dividends from investments, or pension funds can be paid into these accounts.
Furthermore, the interest earned on an NRO fixed deposit is taxed at a rate of 30%.
Income out of India - Non-Resident External (NRE) Bank Account:
You can remit your foreign income earned (in currencies other than Rupees) outside India in the NRE bank account.
Interest rates on these accounts vary depending on the deposit size and/or bank. You can expect interest rates to be around 5-7% per year.
This account is maintained in Indian Rupees.
Transfer from NRE accounts maintained in accordance with the Foreign Exchange Management (Deposit) Regulations, 2016.
Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) Account:
This is a kind of fixed deposit account opened for depositing income earned overseas.
The account is held in foreign currency.
It helps to avoid currency fluctuations that take place in financial markets.
The currency you deposit into the account will determine its interest rate of it.
Investment options available for NRIs:
Fixed Deposits in the aforementioned three bank accounts.
Mutual Funds
Direct Equity
Real Estate
Government Securities
Bonds and Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs)
Retirement Plans
National Pension Scheme (NPS)
Child Plan
If you wish to dive deeper into these investment options then I recommend this article by Policy Bazaar.
Okay, so to make direct equity investments on any recognized stock exchanges in India, NRIs need to open a PIS bank account - a type of saving bank account that will only have secondary market transactions and charges, and oh yes, TDS is also applicable. Under this scheme, NRIs can buy/sell shares of Indian companies through the stock exchanges in India. PIS account is primarily required by the regulator to monitor the investment limit by NRIs in the stock market.
An NRI investor will need the following things:
An NRE/NRO savings account dedicated only for your PIS purposes.
A dematerialized account that holds shares in an electronic form.
A SEBI trading account with a registered broker.
For investing in other financial instruments, investors must ensure the type of bank account they are supposed to have among NRE, NRO and FCNR and other additional requirements if any.
Okay, back to The Economic Times article for NRIs on navigating uncertain economic climate.
🟦 Fixed Income
With the rise of interest rates across the world, fixed income instruments may be appealing to risk-averse investors. The interest rates offered varies from 5-7% and it depends on the bank you have opened your NRE account. You can check the fixed deposit rates offered by popular banks on NRE accounts here.
Interest earned on these term deposits is credited in the Indian Rupee. Please take note that your money (denominated in the Indian Rupee) in this account is subjected to exchange rate fluctuation risk when you wish to repatriate the money to your residing country. If you are concerned about the exchange rate fluctuation risk and wish to be vigilant, then you may consider opting for FCNR deposits. However, as you can see from the following table, interest rates on FCNR deposits are relatively low — typically ranging from 2-4%.
🟦 Direct Equity or Equity Mutual Funds
Equity mutual funds are in vogue in recent years as most investors are beginning to see the benefits of mutual funds in India as a distinct asset class. Equity investments are also loved by NRI investors as they provide relatively higher inflation-adjusted returns along with tax benefits. However, given the persistent market volatility driven by a set of different economic and geopolitical factors, equity MF inflows have dropped by a significant 78% from the year’s peak. Even the direct equity indices have lost around 10% since the start of the year.
Therefore, given the market volatility and weak economic outlook, equity investments may not seem like a preferred investment option at this point. However, if you are a long-term investor who aims to average down or someone who anticipates a better economic outlook, this may prove to be an excellent opportunity to buy equities.
🟦 Real Estate
Investing in property or real estate instruments has always been one of the popular NRI investments in India. I am personally not a very big fan of real estate investments but investors’ rationale for investing in real estate is that it might potentially be a good long-term investment with steady growth.
The depreciating rupee provides an attractive avenue for NRIs looking to buy a house property or pre-pay a part of the housing loan given the fact that every dollar would bring in more rupees. NRIs considering moving to India in the foreseeable future may also find this to be a good opportunity to take advantage of the favourable exchange rate.
Overall, NRI investors need to consider the following factors while investing in Indian financial instruments:
Being mindful of your investment objective and current market conditions.
Considering interest rates and tax implications.
Being aware of your risk appetite, risk capacity and time horizon.
Recognizing specified conditions for investment and their compliance requirements.
Maintaining regular cash flow/income streams.
The amount of time you can dedicate to analyzing the markets and optimizing the portfolios
If you are curious to explore a sensible investment philosophy, I highly recommend my previous newsletter where I extensively discussed Howard Marks’ investment philosophy. Check it out!
3. British pound falls to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985
The British pound on Wednesday plummeted to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 1985. Sterling fell to $1.1407 — a level not seen in 37 years — as investors responded to the U.K.’s darkening economic landscape with a new prime minister at the helm.
The British pound has significantly declined in recent months by surging inflation — currently at the highest level among all G-7 nations — and the prospects of a looming recession. The appointment of Truss, who is widely expected to cut taxes and boost borrowing, has added to U.K. debt market concerns.
Deutsche Bank has warned that the policy stances of newly appointed Prime Minister Liz Truss might pose a threat to Sterling’s stability in the imminent future.
4. IMF announces preliminary bailout loan agreement with Sri Lanka
If you are still unaware, Sri Lanka, the island nation of 22 million people has been facing a severe socio-political and economic crisis triggered by rapidly dwindling foreign currency reserves, shortages of fuel, food and medicines, inability to borrow money from creditors due to debt defaults, etc. You can read more on that in my previous edition of the newsletter.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last Thursday announced that a preliminary staff-level agreement with the Sri Lankan government had been reached for a 48-month arrangement to provide a $US2.9 billion loan facility to restore the stability of the economy and help the country manage its debt as it presses forward with “structural reforms.” The new arrangement is subject to the approval of the fund's management and executive board.
The objectives of Sri Lanka’s new Fund-supported program are to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while safeguarding financial stability, protecting the vulnerable, and stepping up structural reforms to address corruption vulnerabilities and unlock Sri Lanka’s growth potential.
Debt relief from Sri Lanka’s creditors and additional financing from multilateral partners will be required to help ensure debt sustainability and close financing gaps.
Key features of this program are:
Raising fiscal revenue to support fiscal consolidation. Starting from one of the lowest revenue levels in the world, the program will implement major tax reforms. Fiscal consolidation is a macroeconomic process where policies are designed to reduce fiscal deficits and debt accumulation.
Introducing cost-recovery-based pricing for fuel and electricity to minimize fiscal risks arising from state-owned enterprises. Under the cost-recovery method, a firm doesn’t record income related to the sale of its services until the money collected exceeds the cost of the services rendered.
Mitigating the impact of the current crisis on the poor and vulnerable by raising social spending, and improving the coverage and targeting of social safety net programs.
Restoring price stability through data-driven monetary policy action, fiscal consolidation, phasing out monetary financing, and stronger central bank autonomy that allows pursuing flexible inflation targeting regime.
Rebuilding foreign reserves through restoring a market-determined and flexible exchange rate.
Safeguarding financial stability by ensuring a healthy and adequately capitalized banking system, and by upgrading financial sector safety nets and regulatory standards with a revised Banking Act.
Reducing corruption vulnerabilities through improving fiscal transparency and public financial management, introducing a stronger anti-corruption legal framework.
The target is to raise huge new revenues to ensure a fiscal surplus of 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, from the estimated current deficit of 9.8 per cent for this year.
World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) observes that the new IMF-Sri Lanka agreement is yet another “round of savage austerity measures to make workers and the poor pay for the country’s unprecedented economic crisis.”
Furthermore, WSWS notes that a turnaround from a deficit state to a surplus state in two years (as specified by IMF’s agreement) can only be accomplished with enormous tax increases, substantial cuts to government spending on essential services such as health and education, and a major downsizing of the public sector through massive job losses.
Given the current economic framework where inflation is at multi-year highs, commodity crunch across the globe, dollar favouring environment and an imminent threat of global recession, such a turnaround in a short span of 2 years for a crisis-prone developing country is certainly unattainable.
The article also presents other reasonable arguments such as how the loan agreement can potentially hold Sri Lanka at the whim of IMF’s austerity measures.
The IMF will approve its first loan installment only if it is satisfied that the austerity measures are being implemented. IMF official Masahiro Nozak warned that “a review will precede each set of payments.”
I also share the views of WSWS, where they report how the international loans were channelled to pursue the ethnocentric nationalist dreams of the Sri Lankan government to fund the persecution of minority communities — Tamils in particular.
Successive regimes that obtained these loans to boost their profits and offset the impact of the worsening global capitalist crisis. Half of the borrowings were to prosecute the bloody anti-Tamil war that lasted nearly three decades and devastated the economy and whole areas of the island.
I highly recommend reading one of my previous editions of the newsletter where I have explained how the road to Sri Lanka’s crisis was more influenced by socio-political reasons than macro-economic factors. Check it out!
Privacy News of the Week
The United States asked the British spy agency to stop the Guardian from publishing Snowden’s revelations
According to a new book, the US National Security Agency (NSA) attempted to persuade its British counterpart to prevent the Guardian from publishing details concerning secret mass data gathering from NSA contractor Edward Snowden.
Sir Iain Lobban, the head of Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), was reportedly called with the request in the early hours of 6 June 2013 but rebuffed the suggestion that his agency should act as a censor on behalf of its US partner in electronic spying.
The late-night call and the British denial to stop publication of the leaks were the first of several episodes in which the Snowden affair caused internal divisions within the Five Eyes signals intelligence coalition, as recounted in The Secret History of Five Eyes, a new book by film-maker and investigative journalist Richard Kerbaj.
Ireland fines Instagram €405 million over the protection of children's data
Ireland's data privacy regulator has agreed to levy a record fine of 405 million euros ($402 million) against Meta’s Instagram following an investigation into its handling of children's data, a violation of strict European Union data privacy rules.
The investigation, which started in 2020, focused on how Instagram displayed the personal details of users ages 13 to 17, including email addresses and phone numbers. The minimum age for Instagram users is 13. The investigation began after a data scientist found that users, including those under 18, were switching to business accounts and had their contact information displayed on their profiles.
Under the EU's data privacy rules, the Irish watchdog is the lead regulator for Facebook, Apple, Google and other technology giants due to the location of their EU headquarters in Ireland.
TikTok denies security breach after hackers leak user data, source code
On Friday, a hacking group known as “AgainstTheWest” created a topic on a hacking forum claiming to have breached both TikTok and WeChat. The user shared screenshots of an alleged database belonging to the companies, which they say was accessed on an Alibaba cloud instance containing data for both TikTok and WeChat users.
TikTok denies recent claims it was breached, and source code and user data were stolen, telling BleepingComputer that data posted to a hacking forum is "completely unrelated" to the company.
EU broadens inquiry into the use of Pegasus spyware
According to Nikolaj Nielsen of EU Observer, the EU's Pega investigative group, which is investigating the extent to which states utilize intrusive surveillance technologies such as Pegasus, the spyware manufactured and sold by NSO Group, may broaden its scope to include the Italian firm Tykelab and its parent, RCS Lab.
The move has been sparked by a recent investigation by Lighthouse Reports in collaboration with Der Spiegel, Domani, and Irpimedi, which found that the Italian companies were surreptitiously attacking phones with spyware with capabilities almost as sophisticated as Pegasus in southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Europe.
Israeli Defence Minister's Cleaner Sentenced for Spying Attempt
A man employed as a cleaner in Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz's home was sentenced to three years in prison for attempting to spy for Iran-linked hackers, the justice ministry said Tuesday.
He was arrested and charged with attempting to spy for the Black Shadow group after offering to pass information from Gantz's home to the hackers. On Tuesday, the justice ministry said the man had reached a plea deal in which "he confessed to an attempt to pass on information to an enemy," with the court sentencing him to "three years' prison".
The justice ministry statement described Black Shadow as "a hacker group affiliated with Iran".
Iranian authorities plan to use facial recognition to enforce new hijab law
The Iranian government is planning to use facial recognition technology on public transport to identify women who are not complying with a strict new law on wearing the hijab.
The secretary of Iran’s Headquarters for Promoting Virtue and Preventing Vice, Mohammad Saleh Hashemi Golpayegani, announced in a recent interview that the government was planning to use surveillance technology against women in public places following a new decree signed by the country’s hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi, on restricting women’s clothing.
It followed the Hijab and Chastity Day, a national holiday held on July 12, which saw women protest all over the country by posting on social media pictures of themselves without the head covering. Some of the women that have been arrested for violating the new law were identified after videos showing them without the hijab or wearing the hijab the wrong way went viral on social media.
China Targets Online ‘Rumors’ Ahead of Xi’s Leadership Bid
China’s cyberspace watchdog has vowed to crack down on fake news before a key summit where President Xi Jinping is set to take a precedent-defying third term in power.
The Cyberspace Administration of China launched a three-month campaign targeting “online rumours and fake information about major meetings, important events and policies,” starting Friday, it said in a statement. Offenders should be handled “strictly, quickly and severely,” the agency added, without specifying punishments.
The cyber crackdown will also rein in “rumours” about work safety, transport, natural disasters, as well as false information on society, the economy, and people’s livelihoods, according to the statement. Online platforms were urged to blacklist accounts posting such content and government agencies were instructed to respond swiftly.
Doxxed, threatened, and arrested: Russia’s war on Wikipedia editors
One Friday in March, not long after Russia invaded Ukraine, Mikhail, a Russia-based Wikipedia editor, opened the Telegram app to discover that he had been doxxed. His personal information, including his name and social media accounts, had been posted in a channel run by a group of Russian online vigilantes targeting Wikipedians writing about the war.
Below the text was an image with a single word: “Retribution.” The post had been viewed more than 110,000 times.
That month, at least four other Wikipedia editors were also doxxed, and accused of smearing Russia’s war efforts. Among them was Mark Bernstein, an editor based in Belarus, Russia’s ally in the war in Ukraine. After Bernstein’s name appeared in the Mrakoborec group on March 10, he was arrested, and detained in Minsk’s notorious Okrestina detention centre.
Bernstein’s arrest and the threats to individual Wikipedia editors are part of a broader campaign to stifle the platform as the Russian government pushes a pro-war propaganda drive, including banning Western social media platforms and cracking down on independent reporting.
Ad blockers struggle under Chrome's new rules
Next year, Chrome browser extensions – such as ad blockers and other privacy tools – will stop working if they are reliant on an API called Manifest v2 (MV2). The cut-off date for MV2 is January 2023 though it can be used to June via an enterprise policy.
In Google's mind, ad blockers and similar extensions, under the MV2 regime, have too much control over and access to the pages you've got open in the browser. If one of these add-ons turns rogue, it can harvest all kinds of sensitive data about you from these pages as you visit them.
Its successor spec, MV3, got rid of powerful but potentially exploitable capabilities, such as the ability to intercept and rewrite requests for pages – a useful weapon for extensions that seek to preserve your privacy and security by blocking requests to undesirable stuff, such as trackers, malware, and ads.
Privacy-focused developers and advocacy groups have warned that Google's ostensible effort to promote privacy (by limiting data access and enforcing permissions) will end up harming extensions that promote privacy.
Internet Security & Encryption Pioneer Peter Eckersley Passes at 43
The privacy community has lost a notable figure this week with the death of Peter Eckersley, a beloved security software engineer and privacy activist who played a crucial role in many of today's web encryption technologies.
He had spent 12 years working for the Electronic Frontier Foundation, where he helped co-found and co-create many of today's most notable privacy-inclined projects, including the likes of Let's Encrypt, Certbot, Privacy Badger, HTTPS Everywhere, SSL Observatory, and Panopticlick (later rebranded to Cover Your Tracks).
The privacy community expressed their condolences.
Charts of the Week
🎯 Queen Elizabeth II has died
Queen Elizabeth II, the UK's longest-serving monarch, has died at Balmoral aged 96, after reigning for 70 years. Ascending the throne in 1952, Elizabeth led the UK through a time of political upheaval. She began her reign as head of an empire, albeit one in decline. By the time of her death, the future of the UK itself was in doubt, with recurrent calls for independence in Scotland and Britain's exit from the European Union leading to renewed tension in Northern Ireland.
Britain's Queen Elizabeth II was the second-longest reigning monarch in history, after France's Louis XIV. In June this year, she overtook Thailand's King to become the world's second-longest reigning monarch. Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej reigned for 70 years and 126 days between 1927 and 2016.
Louis XIV of France remains the longest-reigning monarch, with a 72-year and 110-day reign from 1643 until 1715.
🎯 The Ascent of CBDCs
Central banks are rolling up their sleeves and familiarizing themselves with the bits and bytes of central bank digital currencies, also known as CBDCs. The central banks are increasingly considering CBDCs, which is evidently from the above chart which monitors the CBDC development of countries across different categories: Pilot stage, Research phase, Proof of concept and Launched.
If you are still unaware of the central bank digital currencies, then you should check out my essay titled, “Central Bank Digital Currency and the Dystopian World of Cashless Economy.” You will learn lots of interesting things!
🎯 India and China soften Russia’s oil sanctions pain
Indian and Chinese oil buying has offset most of the fall in Russian shipments to Europe, raising questions about the impact of sanctions on Moscow that have led to soaring energy bills for European consumers.
A Financial Times analysis of available data from Chinese and Indian customs statistics shows the two countries imported 11mn tonnes more oil from Russia in the second quarter of 2022 compared with the first quarter. Payments for Russian oil from the two countries increased by $9bn.
The biggest volume growth came from India, where imports of Russian oil jumped from 0.66mn tonnes in the first quarter to 8.42mn tonnes in the second.
🎯 The Meteoric Rise of UPI
UPI is a digital payment platform in India that enables fast inter-bank transactions.
Ever since its launch in 2016, UPI has achieved numerous commercial milestones. For instance, UPI has seen a remarkable CAGR of 414% until FY 19-20 and it is expected to reach 169 billion (16,900 crores) by 2025-26, growing at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 122 per cent. It has already become the most preferred payment instrument in terms of volumes.
Partnerships with other countries in Asia to enable low-value transactions and cross-border remittances through UPI will contribute to this growth in the next years, according to a PwC report. Furthermore, the report said that existing products and emerging use cases such as UPI, Fastag, transit (NCMC) and cards will continue to make inroads and gain additional wallet share of the Indian customers. These methods will continue to drive growth in adoption and transaction numbers.
The above infographic by Finshots presents yet another milestone for UPI, as its payment transactions value rose to Rs 10.73 lakh crore in August this year.
🎯 Food and Energy are Driving the Global Inflation Surge - IMF
In the last 12 months, consumer price inflation has hit multi-year highs in most countries including the advanced countries driven by a set of different factors. International Monetary Fund’s research reveals that the price increases in food and energy are the main drivers of this inflation.
IMF notes that since the start of last year, the average contributions just from food exceed the overall average rate of inflation during 2016-2020. In other words, food inflation alone has eroded global living standards at the same rate as inflation of all consumption did in the five years immediately before the pandemic.
A similar story holds for energy costs, which show up both directly and indirectly, through higher transportation costs. This is not to say that prices of other items are not rising too. For example, services inflation has increased in the United States and the euro area. And the relative impact of food, energy, and other items in driving inflation varies considerably across countries.
🎯 Global Policy Rates and Inflation Update
🎯 S&P 500 Futures Positioning Suggests More Down is Coming, as Investors Ramp Up Short Positions
Traders are adding to short positions in S&P 500 futures as the stock market's summer rally stalls. Positioning in S&P 500 futures grew more net-short in the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That means more investors are betting on the benchmark’s decline or hedging against a downturn.
Net-short positioning is approaching the June 2020 low. In other words, market pessimism is on the rise again.
🎯 Recession Outlook for Major Countries
Citi economists’ view is that there is a 50% chance of a global recession, but that it’s more likely to happen in 2023.
They now see contractions over the next 12-18 months in the Euro area, the United Kingdom, and—towards the end of the period—the United States. The timing of these recessions is expected to vary, based on each economy’s exposure to global shocks and its underlying momentum.
The underlying drivers of performance across countries are broadly similar. Surging inflation pressures are afoot, with global headline inflation running at its hottest pace in decades. However, one intensifying downside risk for both Europe and the global economy involves the reliability of the Russian gas supply.
That’s all for this week folks, and thank you so much for making it this far! I hope you had lots of takeaways. Please subscribe if you haven’t yet and yes, subscriptions won't cost you a penny. It’s free!
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Have a great week ahead,
Shreyas